by **Devan Scholefield**

Table of Contents

### NCAA vs NBA

Before we dive into predicting a game, it’s important to understand that on average teams scored 70.47 points per game last season. So when Virginia Tech played North Carolina State in February of 2019 the final score of 47 – 24 for VT was an incredibly low scoring game. Conversely, when Kentucky beat North Carolina 103 – 100 in regulation time in December of 2017 it was an incredibly high scoring game.

### Data Collection

### Traditional Predictive Models

### A New Method

where:

- Field Goals Made
- 3-Pointers Made
- Field Goals Attempted

Most critically this equation is free from tempo. It is independent of how many possessions a team has per game. However it doesn’t account for how good an opposing team’s defence is. Later this will be taken into account.

#### Expected Field Goals Attempted

where:

- Average Field Goals Attempted by team A per game
- Expected Tempo of team A and B
- Tempo of team A

#### Expected Tempo

where:

- The expected number of possessions that team and A and B will each have
- The adjusted number of possessions team A has in a game
- The adjusted number of possessions team B has in a game
- The adjusted number of possessions the average NCAA Division 1 team has in a game

#### Expected Possessions

where:

- The expected eFG % of team A against team B
- The eFG % of team A
- The NCAA average eFG %
- The eFG % that team B’s defence keeps opposing offences to
- The NCAA average eFG % that defences keep opposing offences to
- Note that raw data comes in percentage form, which is divided by 100 to convert it to decimal form

#### Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

where:

- Game Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
- Game Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
- Points Scored Per Possession on Offense
- Points Allowed Per Possession on Defense
- NCAA Average Points Per Possession
- Opponents Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
- Opponents Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

#### Expected Points Scored

where:

- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of team A
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of team B
- The expected number of possessions that team and A and B will each have
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of the average NCAA Division 1 team
- Note is divided by 100 because tempo is generally expressed as points per 100 possessions, therefore we divide by 100 to find points per single possession.

#### Variance of Points Scored

where:

- The number of trials (Field Goals Attempted)
- The probability of success (Effective Field Goal Percentage)

where:

- The expected FGA of team A against team B
- The expected eFG % team A will have against team B
- Since eFG adjusts for 3-pointers we need to multiply by 2 because one “basket” is considered to be worth 2 points